5 VACCINES IN FULL PHASE III TRIALS

COUNTRYDEVELOPER / MANUFACTURERVACCINE PLATFORM / TYPEPHASE III TRIAL START-END
UKUni of Oxford / AstraZenecaNon-Replicating Viral Vector (1 dose)MAY 1 2020 – EST. NOV 2020
CHINASinovacInactivated (2 doses)JULY 21 2020 – OCTOBER 2021
2nd trial fr. AUGUST 10 2020
UAE/CHINAWuhan Institute/Beijing Institute/SinopharmInactivated (2 doses)JULY 16 2020 – JULY 15 2021
USAModerna/NIAIDLNP-encapsulated mRNAJULY 27 2020-OCTOBER 27 2022
GERMANY/USABioNTech / Fosun Pharma / Pfizer3 LNP-mRNAsAPRIL 29 2020-APRIL 16 2021

There are 23 further vaccines in clinical evaluation. This varies from PHASE I to PHASE II. None of these have reached PHASE III so will not be “on the market” in 2020 and probably not in 2021 either.

Russia’s Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology in Moscow, part of the Russian Ministry of Health, has produced a coronavirus vaccine. This vaccine is a modified adenovirus with a spike protein. It has been sanctioned by the Russian government without having gone through proper trials, so it may (or may not) be safe. It is a two shot vaccination and the methods used by Gamaleya Research are similar to those used in many other current clinical evaluations.

PERSONAL EVALUATION

The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is likely to be first to market. If the trials are successful, this may solve the pandemic. The group has cut deals with major pharmaceutical producers around the world to produce billion plus doses. It’s a single shot. It uses the most advanced medical science, and it has had the longest development cycle. If this vaccine is available, I would certainly take it.

The Chinese vaccines may be effective, but we will need more data from the PHASE III clinical trials to know how safe it is and how effective it is – given the risk profile.

Moderna and Pfizer are investing heavily in their vaccines. If they complete their PHASE III clinical trials and come through as safe and effective, I would take either of these options. If they somehow bring a product to market BEFORE the end of the PHASE III clinical trials (i.e. with partial results) then I’d be suspicious they’re cutting corners to maximize market capitalization, running the risk for the sake of the multi-billion dollar early bird bonanza. We’ll see!

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